Implementation Journey
The trail to the finish line: what's already live, the next step that unlocks the most, and the way to reach real people when you get stuck.
What you find on this screen
A portrait of the screen, read from the screen itself — it changes when the screen changes.
Available actions
Run the X-rayRefresh
The list shows
FactorAmountStatusWhat would change the scorePeriodWhatTargetPlannedActualVarianceVariance %Within range
Form fields
DriverO que está sendo previsto (receita, folha, compras). Cada driver tem sua própria pontaria.
CompetênciaMês de referência do confronto entre previsto e realizado.
PrevistoO que o motor projetou para o mês, antes de conhecer o realizado.
Previsto por compromissoProjeção feita só com o que já estava contratado. Serve de piso da previsão.
Previsto ingênuoProjeção que repete o mês anterior. É a régua contra a qual o motor tem de ganhar.
RealizadoO que de fato aconteceu no mês. A diferença contra o previsto é o erro do motor.
Dentro da faixaSe o realizado caiu na faixa que o motor prometeu. É esta contagem que mede a confiança da previsão.
Start here
The screen that teaches
Every month the system freezes what it expects to happen. Thirty days later it compares it with what happened. The difference is not for blaming anyone — it is for the next forecast to be born better than this one.
How to
The X-ray
It reconstructs the months already closed using ONLY what was known on the first day of each one. This cutoff is what makes the proof defensible: without it, the "forecast" would see the receivable issued on the 20th and always be right, proving nothing.
Como um banco te vê
Debt coverage (DSCR) compares your cash generation with the installments of the period. The credit market for small and medium-sized companies works with a minimum of 1.25×; the healthy cushion is at 1.40×. Below the minimum, new credit is usually refused.
Rules
Três colunas, três doenças diferentes
The distance between target and plan is ambition without backing. The distance between plan and actual is forecast error. They are distinct problems, with distinct remedies — and mixing them produces the meeting in which everyone argues about the wrong number.
A régua da previsão ingênua
Next to your error, we show how much the simplest possible forecast would miss: "it will be the same as last month". If the system does not beat this benchmark, it is not adding value — and the screen says so plainly, instead of displaying a nice-looking number.
Calibração não é acerto
The band should contain the real result between 70% and 90% of the time. Less than that, it is too narrow and useless for planning. More than that, it is too wide and says nothing — saying "between zero and infinity" is always right.
Previsão não é meta, e errar previsão não é falha pessoal
If missing the forecast becomes a political problem, everyone starts "forecasting" the target — and the system loses the only thing that makes it useful. The indicator measures the process, not the person.
Frequently asked questions
Por que o erro aparece em WAPE e não em percentual simples?
Because the simple percentage explodes when the month is small: a month of R$ 100 with an error of R$ 100 becomes "100% error" and dominates the average of an entire year. WAPE weights by size, which is how the owner feels the error.
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