Scenarios and trends
The external factors that can affect the business — politics, economy, society, technology, environment and legislation — with probability, intensity and a traffic-light indicator.
What you find on this screen
A portrait of the screen, read from the screen itself — it changes when the screen changes.
Form fields
Fator externo*O que está acontecendo fora da empresa (ex.: alta do dólar, nova norma do setor).
CategoriaA letra do PESTEL: político, econômico, social, tecnológico, ambiental ou legal.
Probabilidade (1–5)1 = improvável · 5 = praticamente certo.
Intensidade (−5 a +5)Positivo é oportunidade, negativo é ameaça; 0 é neutro.
ScoreProbabilidade × |intensidade|: 15 ou mais pede ação agora.
UrgênciaAgir agora (15+), fazer plano (8 a 14) ou monitorar (abaixo de 8).
LeituraOportunidade (+), ameaça (−) ou neutro (0), pelo sinal da intensidade.
Ação sugeridaO que a empresa deveria fazer diante deste fator.
Criado emQuando o fator foi registrado.
Start here
What it's for
Take the "what if…" out of the owner's head and put it into a comparable table. Each external factor receives a probability (1–5) and an intensity (−5 strong threat to +5 strong opportunity); the classification and the traffic light come out on their own.
How to
The numbers on top, the records below
The panel’s indicators stay at the top; below, the standard list with the records behind them — search, filters in the side panel, saved views, columns and export. Click a record to open its form.
Rules
Classification and traffic light calculated
Positive intensity = OPPORTUNITY; negative = THREAT. Score = probability × |intensity| (max. 25): red ≥15 requires action now, yellow 8–14 calls for a plan, green <8 means monitor. None of this is typed in — change the score, the traffic light changes.
Send to the SWOT
The "send to SWOT" button turns the factor into an OPPORTUNITY or THREAT item in your SWOT, with the intensity converted — and keeps the link so it doesn't duplicate if you click again.
A scenario without action is folklore
A red factor without a written suggested action is just documented anxiety. Write the action on the factor itself; in the plan review, the red ones without action are the first to be charged.
Frequently asked questions
What's the difference from the financial "Scenarios"?
The financial simulator (what-if for deadlines and amounts) works with internal numbers. This screen looks OUTWARD: what the world might do to your business — and it feeds the SWOT and the strategic plan.
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